Saturday, November 27, 2010

Some probability

among N persons, willing to go to a place X, in one of the 5 working days.

Step1: probability that day chosen for outing is friday = 1/5 * preference_index.

Step2: probability of day chosen as any other day = 1/5 * (1 - preference_index).

preference index =  persons choosing to go on friday / 2  +
                               persons ignoring friday as it will be
                               occupied by atleast one more ppl /2

2 = minimum number of persons required to make the place X
occupied when you are there.. (you + one more = 2)

if k persons out of N choose a day and n = k/N.. (which turns out that k -> N if none of the N person ditch their plan to go to place X)

preference_index = n/2 + (1-n)/2 = 1/2

substituting the preference index in Step1 and Step2,
It doesnt make things any better if you go on any day of the week..


Critiques and comments welcomed.

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